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The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future, by Bruce Bueno De Mesquita
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Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts.
Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize—winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban).
But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn’t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone).
Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer’s Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life’s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose.
From the Hardcover edition.
- Sales Rank: #733223 in Books
- Brand: Random House
- Published on: 2009-09-29
- Released on: 2009-09-29
- Ingredients: Example Ingredients
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.54" h x 1.15" w x 6.35" l, 1.15 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 272 pages
- Used Book in Good Condition
Amazon.com Review
Book Description Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts.
Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize-winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban).
But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn’t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone).
Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer’s Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life’s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose.
Most helpful customer reviews
8 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
Some people like it a lot
By gerryjj
The reviews by Brown, McDonald and Bertolo are spot on.
It is entertaining but you won't become knowledgeable in game theory or an expert predictioner from reading it. The book leaves a lot to be desired. It doesn't properly explain game theory or how to deal with uncertainty and is mostly about himself with claims that the claims are substantiated, but are not.
If you are only interested in examples and don't want to go deeply into the subject to learn how, maybe this book is for you. Some people like it a lot, and some see its flaws, so check out other reviews.
Essentially (behind the missing explanations) he has parameters for
1. the influence of key players,
2. The relevant importance of those players to the outcome, called salience
3. The probability that that influence and importance will be effective towards or against a particular outcome
4. The rules of the game (eg voting power)
5 Iterations that may occur which will affect who has what changed influence or importance
These have different roles or relevance to different problems and may not all be present in a given situation..
There are other books whose reviews you should check to see if they are more suitable' ....
Depending on your needs they are
3.5* game theory -non-technical introduction
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0486296725/ref=pe_1205900_124795750_em_1p_2_ti
4.5* the signal and the noise
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/159420411X/ref=pe_1205900_124795750_em_1p_3_ti
3.5* Rock, paper scissors
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0465009387/ref=pe_1205900_124795750_em_1p_0_ti
4* What money can't buy
http://www.amazon.com/What-Money-Cant-Buy-Markets/dp/0374533652/ref=pd_sim_b_6?ie=UTF8&refRID=14ASP9F9WTDAY1FYJ4JV
4.5* Naked statistics
http://www.amazon.com/Naked-Statistics-Stripping-Dread-Data/dp/039334777X/ref=pd_cp_b_0
5.5* A practical guide to policy analysis
http://www.amazon.com/Practical-Guide-Policy-Analysis-Eightfold/dp/1608718425/ref=pd_bxgy_b_text_y
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
I had to use "Game Theory" for a semester long ...
By Scott Chapman
I had to use "Game Theory" for a semester long paper where I had to write 15 page sections and a presentation every 2 weeks in my "Comparative Politics" class. At the end of the semester when I gave my last presentation, I had to admitt that some of my initial hypotheses were wrong after doing the deep research and applying "Game Theory." BBM's game theory allows a person to prove him or herself wrong by using social science and math. Yet, if the person is able to to accept that the research and game theory has proven his or her initial hypotheses wrong, the person has a 90% chance of being right. BBM's are always entertaining due to his witty sense of humor as well.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Probably the best book I've read so far this year
By karenann
From putting together what looks like a workable solution to the Israeli-Arab problem to providing us a chapter on what could be a John Grisham legal thriller, Bruce de Mesquita's book gives us a fascinating peek at the techniques that he's used for the CIA and major corporate clients. You should know that the author says that he has a 90% success rate in predicting futures for policy and political issues. But up until now, his methodology, mathematics, and computer programs have been beyond the reach of understanding by the average reader.
What he does and how he does it has been something of a mystery to me until I read this book, and he gives an excellent walk through of his techniques. It helped me focus on how to better hone my predictions about social and political issues, and it can help you too.
The only problems that I had with the book was that not enough attention was given to the ins and outs of his computer runs. Probability and regression analysis are central to his methods, and the average reader could probably benefit by getting a walk through. Also, the last chapter of the book appears to be irrelevant to me, as he does an autopsy on the Roman Empire instead of tackling more gripping current issues.
These shortcomings are small in comparison to what you'll be able to get out of this book. I strongly recommend it.
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